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Investors Fed-Cut Fantasy Is About to Get Expensive
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Investors Fed-Cut Fantasy Is About to Get Expensive
By Brandon Chapman, CMT
Markets are pricing in multiple Fed cuts that Powell never actually promised. When that assumption breaks, everything gets repriced -- tech, housing, leveraged credit, all of it. And it won't be pretty.
Right now, investors are still treating this like a low-inflation, low-volatility world, but I'm seeing late-cycle signals everywhere. The yield curve isn't just inverted -- it's staying inverted longer than most expected. Historically, that screams credit risk building beneath the surface. Oil's creeping higher, credit's tightening, yet people keep buying tech like nothing's changed.